It’s an open secret at this level that Microsoft is gearing as much as ship a major replace for Windows this yr that can primarily give attention to new AI experiences, a lot of which shall be powered by next-generation silicon from the likes of Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm. This subsequent launch, code-named Hudson Valley, is predicted to be unveiled in early summer time, and start transport within the fall.
Because of its significance, there was some debate round what precisely Microsoft intends to name this subsequent Windows replace. Will or not it’s one other Windows 11 characteristic replace, or will Microsoft go all out and name it one thing new like Windows 12? The reply is we don’t but know, and sure received’t know for certain till Microsoft is able to take the wraps off Hudson Valley in a handful of months.
This is a subject being mentioned not simply externally amongst Windows followers and tech fanatics, however internally on the firm too. There are professionals and cons for going both route with branding, and whereas I’d personally love for Hudson Valley to ship as “Windows 12,” studying the tea leaves, I believe that is unlikely. Here’s why.
Windows has a brand new boss
Windows obtained a brand new boss and residential internally at Microsoft over the past six months. When this occurs, it’s not unusual for the “new guys” to have completely different ideas, opinions, and views on what Windows as a product and platform needs to be. Everything from what options are greenlit, to how OS updates are delivered, can change when Windows will get a brand new chief.
Windows’ earlier boss, Panos Panay, oversaw each Windows & Surface, much like how Apple handles macOS and the Mac. This thought of a top-down synergy between {hardware} and software program was necessary for Panay, and it resulted in issues like Windows 11, an OS that rightly complemented the premium {hardware} it might be discovered on.
There’s no denying a transparent divide relating to UX polish between Windows 10 and Windows 11, and to my data, that’s principally one thing Panay actually pushed for. But now he’s out the door, Windows & Surface have primarily been break up up internally, and now Windows resides underneath the identical umbrella as Edge, Bing, MSN, and Copilot.
Windows’ new boss, Mikhail Parakhin is CEO of Advertising and Web Services at Microsoft, and now oversees Windows along with the online merchandise talked about above. Of course, the brand new boss probably has his personal views on Windows, together with the place it suits on the firm, and adjustments are already starting to be made.
One such change is the Windows launch technique itself. Under Panay, Microsoft was shifting again to a three-year improvement cycle for main releases of the Windows platform, which might have been timed with new variations of the Windows product (like Windows 12, Windows 13, and so on.)
Now that Windows is a part of the online experiences staff, I perceive that Microsoft needs to return to a extra frequent replace schedule for Windows as a complete. The new bosses wish to emphasize Windows as a Service, which suggests transport options and platform enhancements after they’re prepared, as an alternative of ready for a giant bang launch each few years.
Fragmentation is an actual concern
Right now, there are two dominant variations of Windows in the marketplace. There’s Windows 10, which has round 1 billion customers, and Windows 11, which sources say has round 400 million customers. That totals 1.4 billion Windows customers, with a roughly 70/30 break up between platforms. That’s referred to as fragmentation, and it’s one thing OS platform makers wish to keep away from.
The drawback is, a lot of the customers nonetheless utilizing Windows 10 are doing so on PCs that aren’t eligible for Windows 11, and plenty of of these PCs are nonetheless completely able to performing the day-to-day duties they had been bought for. Because of this, Microsoft is aware of that Windows 11 progress is slowing.
While a brand new model of Windows would possibly encourage some customers to dump their present Windows 10 PC for a brand new one with Windows 12, that encouragement solely works on a small share of individuals. Most customers simply don’t care about new variations of Windows, and would somewhat wait to purchase a brand new PC as soon as their present one is now not match for objective.
This is why Microsoft not too long ago introduced plans to convey new options again to Windows 10, as a result of it is aware of lots of people haven’t any intention of upgrading to Windows 11 (or a Windows 12) for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t matter how groundbreaking a possible Windows 12 is, folks simply don’t care.
If Microsoft had been to ship a Windows 12 this yr, that may imply supporting and sustaining a 3rd in-market model of the shopper OS, one thing the corporate actually needs to keep away from. So if Hudson Valley ships as one other Windows 11 replace, Microsoft solely has to proceed actively supporting two variations of Windows.
I believe this panorama adjustments as soon as Windows 10 exists assist in 2025, however there’s no room for a Windows 12 in the marketplace earlier than then.
Playing it secure is vital
I believe a key motive for making the following launch Windows 12 is that if it comes with a considerably reworked interface. Since Windows XP, new variations of Windows have include some sort of interface redesign or paradigm shift, which hasn’t all the time gone down nicely with Windows customers.
The most notorious instance of that is Windows 8, which tried to uproot the whole lot you recognize about Windows in favor of a simplified, touch-first expertise as an alternative. These adjustments broken the Windows model considerably, and it left Microsoft choosing up the items for the following half a decade after Windows 8’s launch.
We know that Microsoft was experimenting with a major desktop UX overhaul for Hudson Valley underneath Panay. In reality, an early proof of idea mock up even leaked due to somebody by accident together with it throughout an Ignite 2022 keynote presentation.
The idea revealed a floating Taskbar design, and a brand new residence alongside the highest of the display screen for issues just like the System Tray and Windows Search bar. While this interface would not be that drastic from what we now have immediately, I nonetheless suppose it is a threat Microsoft would not must take proper now.
Users are so averse to vary that they may use any UX change as an excuse to not improve, which is a large drawback in case your launch is all about placing your AI tech in entrance of as many individuals as potential. If Microsoft simply sticks with the interface folks know, that is one much less motive for customers to refuse the replace.
And if Hudson Valley is a Windows 11 replace, these customers can solely refuse it for thus lengthy anyway. Microsoft’s present replace coverage means as soon as the model of Windows 11 you are utilizing reaches finish of assist, you’re robotically up to date to the newest model of Windows 11 to remain safe.
This would not occur between completely different Windows product releases. So, if Hudson Valley is Windows 12, customers can refuse it endlessly. They won’t ever be pressured to maneuver to it, which clearly would not assist Microsoft long-term.
Microsoft is quick turning into the AI firm, and shareholders wish to see Microsoft’s AI tech and companies in use by as many individuals as potential. So, it is paramount that this subsequent Windows launch is acquainted, simple to make use of, and most significantly, launched as an replace for all 400 million Windows 11 customers.
Windows 10 will get reevaluated
One of the very first issues the brand new Windows management staff did was reevaluate its stance on Windows 10. Under Panay, Microsoft opted to depart Windows 10 behind, and focus solely on delivering new options for Windows 11 and past. As we have mentioned, this choice reduce out a majority of Windows customers from having fun with any of the brand new apps, companies and options Microsoft has been constructing over the past two years.
That contains most of Microsoft’s AI efforts, together with Windows Copilot. So in fact, the staff accountable for Copilot, now additionally being accountable for Windows, determined that they need to convey Copilot to the model of Windows that has probably the most customers, and thus, a call was made to refocus efforts on delivering options to each Windows 10 and Windows 11.
This, I believe, is the largest proof that Microsoft would not wish to do a Windows 12 this yr. It needs to start out treating Windows 10 and Windows 11 like a singular platform. There’s now even an inner effort to streamline the method for again porting sure options from Windows 11 to Windows 10.
Microsoft will even let customers pay for continued safety updates past the tip of assist date in 2025. That’s how a lot it is aware of customers aren’t seeking to improve to Windows 11 or Windows 12 any time quickly.
Ultimately, we’re developing on one other Windows XP scenario, the place the final model of Windows was the newest for manner longer than ordinary. Many of these customers ended up being bored with shifting to something newer for a really very long time.
Windows XP caught round for manner longer than Microsoft wished it to, which led to a decade of person base fragmentation throughout Windows XP, Windows Vista, Windows 7, and Windows 8. Windows 10 was the unification effort Microsoft wanted to get everybody again on the identical platform once more, nevertheless it took some time.
Now, Microsoft is susceptible to doing all of it once more. Does Microsoft hold down this path and fragment the platform additional, or do they plug the outlet now and play the ready recreation for Windows 10 PCs to die off and Windows 11 to change into the brand new dominant OS?
We simply do not know
Ultimately, we do not know what Microsoft will find yourself doing later this yr. I believe my arguments for why Windows 12 is unlikely this yr are sturdy, however everyone knows Microsoft is Microsoft, and generally logic would not apply.
It’s potential that OEMs are placing stress on Microsoft to ship Hudson Valley as Windows 12 for that small increase in gross sales it’ll finally present. Or maybe Microsoft has huge UX plans for Hudson Valley that may naturally make for a great Windows 12, whatever the dangers that brings.
While that was definitely potential underneath Panay, I do not suppose the brand new management staff is serious about any drastic UX adjustments proper now. Could Microsoft reserve it all for a Windows 12 for 2025? Maybe. I believe that may be a safer play for them. But deep down, I do not suppose Microsoft needs to do a Windows “12” in any respect.
My huge guess is that long-term, Microsoft would like to do what Google does with Chrome OS, which is make the platform invisible. You do not hear about Chrome OS 12, or Chrome OS Version 2025. It’s simply Chrome OS, all the time and endlessly, always up to date with new options and enhancements with out a lot of a fuss.
If Microsoft might try this with Windows, Microsoft would by no means have to fret about fragmentation once more. Windows, as a service, up to date each week or month with one thing new right here and there, for “the lifetime of the machine” you bought. That’s Microsoft’s dream objective, in my view.
Will they ever get there? We’ll have to attend and see. But for now, I believe this yr’s huge Windows OS launch goes to be Windows 11 model 24H2, with AI because the headlining characteristic.
